{"id":755,"date":"2020-04-14T08:22:00","date_gmt":"2020-04-14T08:22:00","guid":{"rendered":"http:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/?p=755"},"modified":"2020-08-07T09:17:05","modified_gmt":"2020-08-07T09:17:05","slug":"dark-times-ahead","status":"publish","type":"post","link":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/?p=755","title":{"rendered":"Dark times ahead"},"content":{"rendered":"\n

We haven\u2019t seen the full effect of Covid-19 yet, and when we do, fingers of blame will hone in without due diligence.<\/strong><\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m going to put my boot in. This thing\u2019s not over; not by a long shot.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

When lockdown is over and the coronavirus takes hold in densely-packed townships and informal settlements, running rampant amongst those denied the luxuries of isolation and working from home, it\u2019s going to enjoy its second breath.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

And when people start dying by the dozens, even hundreds – and they will – South Africans will look for someone to blame. Social media has thrown up potential candidates: whites or \u2018the rich\u2019 – the two terms are apparently interchangeable.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

But surely, that wouldn\u2019t happen? After all, such claims are irrational. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Think again. In an\u00a0Undark article<\/span><\/a>, science journalist Sarah Wild refers to the challenges facing fact-checking organisation\u00a0Africa Check<\/span><\/a>\u00a0who try and monitor the hundreds of fake news stories crawling into social media every day; stories such as \u2018African blood and black skin prevent Covid-19\u2019. That\u2019s obviously rubbish, but it doesn\u2019t matter when people lack the basic requirement to filter false news – rational judgement.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

You probably think that\u2019s an unfair claim, so let me reach for a simple pen and paper and write one word: religion<\/em>. <\/p>\n\n\n\n

Make sure you\u2019re sitting down for this. For any religion to claim it is rooted in reality<\/em> it has to provide a non-fictional<\/em> cornerstone. Obviously. That is true for any religion whether that cornerstone is a single deity, multiple deities, spirits, or any other fantastical entity or entities. And let\u2019s be clear here, if you think your religion is the only religion with a claim to the truth, then you really need to get out more.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

If a religion is to claim that reality is exclusive<\/em>, it has to provide unequivocal evidence it is, and, critically, that all the others are false. Simply claiming yours is the one true religion simply won\u2019t cut it. Good luck with that.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The only thing true about gods and spirits is that they are all kindred characters within the metaphysical domain; i.e. they\u2019re not real<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

The only thing true about gods and spirits is that they are all kindred characters within the metaphysical<\/em> domain; i.e. they\u2019re not real. You can thump your chest, wave your arms and wail as much as you like, but your belief is just that – a belief<\/em> without physical evidence<\/em>. It\u2019s part of your personal world. Viruses, on the other hand, are part of the natural world<\/em>. They are real for everyone, irrespective of belief<\/em>. They are observable and measurable. We can analyse them, decode them, replicate them, and, if we\u2019re lucky, protect ourselves from them.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Their impact on humans is predictable<\/em>. That\u2019s cause and effect for you. The technology and medicine we need to tackle them, similarly, wouldn\u2019t exist without our ability to measure and replicate cause and effects within the natural world.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

On the other hand, any effects of the metaphysical are claimed to be causal after<\/em> the fact – \u201cIt\u2019s starting to rain, praise be to Binky the Magic Unicorn!\u201d<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Viruses follow the laws of nature; beliefs follow the ebb and flow of human ignorance<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

This is why viruses are so dangerous: viruses follow the laws of nature; beliefs follow the ebb and flow of human ignorance. It is folly to believe that viruses must adapt to our whim or belief structures. Invoking the protection of a fictional deity won\u2019t work, and while cultural idiosyncrasies may be guarded by a constitution, viruses can\u2019t read. And if they could, they probably wouldn\u2019t give a shit.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

That religions still exist and are so widespread is not evidence that the myriad different deities or spirits prayed to are equally real, just that humans – with the possible exception of philosophers and free-thinkers – are either incapable or unwilling to exercise rational judgement<\/em>. Suspending disbelief for 90 minutes while watching a movie, and crying when the main character dies is one thing, suspending disbelief your entire life, convinced another fictional character is interested in your every move is irrational<\/em>.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

It is with this lack of rational judgement<\/em> that humans must now cast their verdict upon a virus. Unfortunately, we\u2019ve been here before: HIV. The rapid spread of that virus with such devastation in South Africa and elsewhere has been made possible not so much by the virus as by humans\u2019 reaction to it. Because HIV was – and still is – so dangerous, we have to adapt. That’s relatively easy: use a condom if having sexual intercourse with multiple partners. People unable or unwilling to adapt either pay the price or leave others to do so. That\u2019s not commentary on any culture or belief system, it\u2019s science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The fake news running wild in social media will probably fuel the spread of the virus beyond anything we\u2019ve seen so far in South Africa<\/p><\/blockquote>\n\n\n\n

So given the history of our relationship with dangerous viruses<\/em> and the lack of rational judgement<\/em> shown by the religious, the fake news running wild in social media will probably fuel the spread of the virus beyond anything we\u2019ve seen so far in South Africa. Blame will need a name; any measure of corroboration from an authority would help fuel that blame.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

Enter a supposed paragon of rational media. On 31 March, the Business Day published\u00a0a piece by journalist Katherine Child<\/span><\/a>\u00a0that started thus: \u201cThe coronavirus, which first entered South Africa in wealthy people returning from ski trips to Europe, is now beginning to seep into communities from where it\u2019s likely to spread rapidly.\u201d Katherine should know better.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

The next day, Brandan Reynolds – the cartoonist for the Business Day – tapped into this vaporous sentiment with a\u00a0cartoon<\/span><\/a>\u00a0showing a plane flying over shacks. The plane is dropping coronaviruses, and on its nose is the name \u2018The Rich\u2019. I have a deep appreciation for the work of Brandan. I have interviewed him, and he is a humble man of remarkable talent. I will also defend his right to express himself and his purpose to provoke comment, but he should do so responsibly.\u00a0<\/p>\n\n\n\n

\"Image:<\/figure>\n\n\n\n

Business Day\u2019s sister publication Financial Mail isn\u2019t guilt-free. On 9th April, columnist Justice Malala started\u00a0an otherwise excellent opinion piece on conspiracy theories<\/span><\/a>\u00a0and fake news thus: \u201cWe know how the story of all these Covid-9 conspiracy theories will end. We have seen it all before. The story ends with the deaths of mainly poor people while the elites that manufacture these conspiracies and implement their harmful \u201csolutions\u201d escape unscathed.\u201d Justice fails to provide evidence that \u2018these conspiracies\u2019 are the work of \u2018elites\u2019. That\u2019s academic now; the damage is done.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I hope that I am wrong, and that in the face of the rampant spread of Covid-19 that is to come, South Africans will remain calm, refute false narratives, dismiss the few wild words from seasoned journalists, and embrace the realities of science.<\/p>\n\n\n\n

I\u2019m not holding my breath.<\/p>\n","protected":false},"excerpt":{"rendered":"

We haven\u2019t seen the full effect of Covid-19 yet, and when we do, fingers of blame will hone in without due diligence. I\u2019m going to put my boot in. This thing\u2019s not over; not by a long shot. When lockdown is over and the coronavirus takes hold in densely-packed townships and informal settlements, running rampant…<\/p>\n","protected":false},"author":1,"featured_media":756,"comment_status":"closed","ping_status":"closed","sticky":false,"template":"","format":"standard","meta":{"footnotes":""},"categories":[107,1,19,2,21],"tags":[149,90,27,102],"_links":{"self":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755"}],"collection":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts"}],"about":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/types\/post"}],"author":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/users\/1"}],"replies":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcomments&post=755"}],"version-history":[{"count":2,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755\/revisions"}],"predecessor-version":[{"id":780,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/posts\/755\/revisions\/780"}],"wp:featuredmedia":[{"embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=\/wp\/v2\/media\/756"}],"wp:attachment":[{"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fmedia&parent=755"}],"wp:term":[{"taxonomy":"category","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Fcategories&post=755"},{"taxonomy":"post_tag","embeddable":true,"href":"https:\/\/www.darylilbury.com\/wordpress\/index.php?rest_route=%2Fwp%2Fv2%2Ftags&post=755"}],"curies":[{"name":"wp","href":"https:\/\/api.w.org\/{rel}","templated":true}]}}